The ongoing conflict between the state of Israel and its adversaries in the Middle East is shaping up to be a long-term struggle, and Iran is positioning itself as the ultimate winner. With its vast missile arsenal, regional proxies, oil and gas, and strategic patience, Iran has the upper hand in this prolonged confrontation – our editor writes.
Vast Oil and Gas Reserves
The Islamic Republic of Iran is a top 10 producer of oil and gas, making its energy sites crucial in local, regional, and global markets.
With about 157 billion barrels of proven crude oil, Iran holds about a quarter (24%) of the Middle East’s and 12% of the world’s proven oil reserves.
It is the ninth-largest oil producer globally and the fourth-largest within OPEC, producing about 3.3 million barrels of crude oil per day. It exports approximately 2 million barrels of crude and refined fuel daily. Below is the top 10 list;
- United States of America
- Saudi Arabia
- Russia
- Canada
- China
- Iraq
- Brazil
- UAE
- Iran
- Kuwait
Iran’s Missile Capability: A Game-Changer
Iran boasts one of the largest and most advanced missile facilities in the world, capable of striking targets across the region with pinpoint precision.
Unlike Israel, which relies heavily on aerial dominance and U.S. support for its Iron Dome and missile defense systems, Iran has developed its missile technology independently, making it less vulnerable to foreign pressure.
Ballistic Missiles- Iran’s Shahab, Emad, and Sejjil missiles can reach distances of up to 2,000 kilometers, putting Israel well within range.
Cruise Missiles- The Soumar and Hoveizeh cruise missiles can evade radar detection and deliver precision strikes.
Drones & Hypersonic Tech- Iran’s Shahid drones and recently developed hypersonic Fattah-1 missiles make their attacks faster and harder to intercept.
Israel’s Iron Dome defense system, while effective, is not foolproof, as seen recently. A sustained missile barrage from Iran and its proxies could overwhelm Israel, causing significant damage.
Proxy Warfare: Iran’s Asymmetric Advantage
Iran doesn’t need to fight Israel directly or alone. It has established a network of militant groups across the region to fight against their common enemy.
- Hezbollah (Lebanon) -Possesses an estimated 150,000 rockets and high-capability missiles.
- Hamas & PIJ (Gaza) -Continues to launch attacks, draining Israeli resources.
- Houthis (Yemen) – Disrupts regional trade and targets Israel with long-range drones.
This strategy forces Israel to fight on multiple fronts, stretching its military thin. Their budget is also stretched.
Economic & Diplomatic Resilience
Despite harsh sanctions from the UN, EU, UK, and USA, Iran has adapted by strengthening ties with superpowers Russia and China, ensuring economic survival. Meanwhile, Israel faces growing international isolation due to its military actions in Gaza, widely seen as war crimes.
Economically, the war between the two nations will cost Israel $12 billion if the war is prolonged. The Israeli missile defense drains $4M per intercept. Infrastructure damage mounts amid 400+ Iranian rockets.
The Final Take
While Israel may win battles due to the help from the US, Iran is winning the war of attrition, slowly but surely tipping the balance of power in its favor. In the long run, the question isn’t if Iran will prevail, but when.
