- The election saw 49 member states participate with six other countries suspended.
- The chairperson is elected by member states, excluding countries under military rule.
- The candidates were; Raila Odinga, Mahmoud Ali Youssouf, and Richard Randriamandrato.
Kenya’s prominent opposition leader and former Prime Minister, Raila Odinga, lost the African Union Commission (AUC) Chairman elections to Djibouti’s Foreign Affairs Minister Mahmoud Ali Youssouf in a hotly contested election for Africa’s top seat.
Three candidates; Raila Odinga (Kenya), Mahmoud Youssouf (Djibouti), and Richard J. Randriamandrato (Madagascar) made it to the elections after others stepped down along the way.
During the voting, Randriamandrato withdrew from the race after three rounds leaving Raila to battle with Mahmoud. After 6 rounds Kenya’s Odinga also surrendered letting Djibouti carry the day with 33 votes.
Experts have explained various reasons that led to Raila Odinga’s loss. The reasons are due to a combination of geopolitical dynamics, regional rivalries, religion, trade blocks, and insufficient continental support. Despite his extensive political experience and high-profile campaign, Odinga faced significant challenges that ultimately led to his defeat.
Regional Politics Factor
One of the primary reasons for Raila’s loss was the lack of unanimous support from African Union (AU) member states. The AUC Chairmanship requires broad consensus, and Odinga struggled to secure the backing of key regions, particularly West Africa and North Africa.
Many West and North African nations rallied behind Mahmoud Ali Youssouf, emphasizing the principle of regional rotation, which favored a candidate from their bloc. This regional solidarity worked against Odinga, who hails from the East African Community.
Additionally, Odinga’s candidacy was perceived by some as being heavily supported by Kenya’s government, which may have alienated other nations wary of Kenya’s growing influence in continental affairs. Some AU members were concerned that his election would tilt the balance of power in favor of East Africa, disrupting the AU’s tradition of equitable regional representation.
Another factor was the intense lobbying and diplomatic maneuvering by competing candidates and their respective countries. Odinga’s opponents worked tirelessly to consolidate support, leveraging existing alliances and promising strategic benefits to sway votes in their favor. This behind-the-scenes politicking often overshadowed Odinga’s campaign, which, despite its visibility, failed to translate into sufficient votes.
Kenyans on X Factor
Some Kenyans online openly campaigned for rival candidates which might have raised questions about his home support. They raised a lot of issues including recent illegal arrests and abductions of both locals and foreigners within its borders. Notably, also is President William Ruto’s hand in supporting Raila Odinga. Kenya’s president campaigned on Pan-Africanism only for him to embrace those he talked against.
Furthermore, Odinga’s political history, particularly his role as a long-time opposition leader in Kenya, may have raised concerns among some AU members about his ability to maintain neutrality and foster unity across the continent. The AUC Chairmanship requires a figure who can bridge divides and represent all African nations impartially, and some may have doubted Odinga’s capacity to fulfill this role.
In conclusion, Raila Odinga’s loss in the AUC Chairman elections was a result of regional rivalries, insufficient continental consensus, Kenyans online, and effective lobbying by his opponents. While his candidacy was notable and desired, it ultimately could not overcome the complex political dynamics and entrenched interests within the African Union.
